An approach to modeling a region’s innovation activity

Abstract

Introduction. Innovation activity of the regions in the Russian Federation includes many aspects with their changes determined by various factors. These conditions make it a challenge to manage this activity and require a clear understanding of the consequences from the implemented activities. The paper focuses on the problem to forecast the changes in the parameters in question.

Purpose. The paper aims at outlining the groups of regions in the context of their innovation activity and developing a structural-logical model of a region’s innovation activity.

Materials and Methods. Federal State Statistics data were analyzed to reveal the development parameters of the Russian regions; the study uses such methods as structural and dynamic analysis, cluster analysis, structural-logical modeling.

Results. The presented brief review of the approaches to defining the key concepts in this area revealed the lack of a unified approach even at the conceptual level. Further analysis of the methods used to solve the problems of forecasting the situation showed that, despite a wide set of economic-mathematical and other tools, it is not possible to directly use previously obtained results in most cases at the regional level. The innovation activity parameters of the Russian Federation constituents were analyzed to identity the groups of regions that differ significantly in terms of the set of parameters in question. The structural-logical model of the region’s innovation activity as an element of the general model of socio-economic development of the region was proposed.

Conclusion. Further parameterization of the proposed model for the region’s innovation activity should take into account the distinctive features of a particular regional system. At the same time, we believe the proposed model can be the starting point to develop a standard core of the decision making support system in this area.

Keywords: innovation activity, approaches to definition, Russian regions, current condition, forecasting, retrospective analysis, modeling, cluster analysis, structural-logical model, differentiation of regions

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