Оpen personal intellectual technology for development and application of adaptive methods of assessment of investment attractiveness and creditworthiness of enterprises

Abstract

Reliable assessment of the economic and financial activities of enterprises is important both for enterprises in order to take adequate measures in advance to get out of the crisis, and for investors and creditors, for whom the risk of bankruptcy of the financed enterprise is directly related to the risk of default on investments or loans. Thus, a reliable tool for assessing the risks of crediting to enterprises is necessary as it will allow assessing the investment attractiveness and creditworthiness of an enterprise. However, several problems due to which a company can not access the application of such techniques have been revealed during the study: 1) lack of methods for reliable assessment of credit risks of various enterprises; 2) high cost of services for development and adaptation of the credit risk assessment methods; 3) inability to purchase this technology for self-use; 4) high complexity and laboriousness of the development of mathematical models necessary for this technology implementing their algorithms and data structures, as well as software tools that provide the possibility of practical application of these models. The authors have substantiated that the problems mentioned above can be solved by applying a new innovation technology of artificial intelligence – automated system-cognitive analysis equipped with its own software tools of personal level – intellectual system “Eidos” (open software). The technology will be used as a form of adaptive methods for assessing the crediting risk of enterprises. The novelty of the study concerns the development of an open personal intellectual technology for creating adaptive techniques for the assessment of investment attractiveness and creditworthiness of an enterprise on the basis of the automated system-cognitive analysis and “Eidos” system. It allows using the original approach for the study of a huge range of social and economic systems and processes. The results obtained during the study have scientific and applied significance and lie in the development of an open personal technology that allows creating new methods for an enterprise’s crediting risk assessment on its basis with the tools of an automated system-cognitive analysis of initial financial data about an enterprise economic activity. They also concern the development of an environment for the application of these techniques in practice in an adaptive regime. A detailed numerical example of the use of the automated system-cognitive analysis as a technology for creating a method of crediting risk assessment is provided in the article. Further studies will concern the development of adaptive methods of crediting risk assessment that will consider the specifics of economic activity of enterprises, their localization, characteristics and dynamics of the external environment.

Keywords

automated system-cognitive analysis, economic-mathematical models, software product, intellectual system “Eidos”, assessment reliability, financial condition of an enterprise, crediting risks, an enterprise’s creditworthiness, investment attractiveness of an enterprise, bankruptcy.

Acknowledgements

The study was financially supported with the Russian Foundatin for Basic Research and the authority of Krasnodar Kai in the framework of the scientific project No. 18-410-230036 p_a.

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