Admissible, critical and catastrophic risk in the activity of small and medium-sized enterprises: Methodology of estimation and results of application

Abstract

To consider risk factors is essential for further development of entrepreneurial sector in the economy of Russia. Such information is necessary for aspiring entrepreneurs because it allows to make a decision while choosing economic activity as well as for state run public authorities while making decisions on the support of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship. Therefore the considered problems are relevant at the present stage. The aim of the research is to analyze the regularities characterizing the current level of entrepreneurial risk for small and medium-sized enterprises specializing in various types of economic activities and located in different regions of the country. Criteria, indicators and procedure to evaluate the current levels of admissible, critical and catastrophic risk in various types of economic activities and different regions of Russia have been proposed. The values for admissible and critical entrepreneurial risks have been calculated based on the statistical data analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises of 13 economic activity types according to financial results for 2014. It has been revealed that the average level of admissible entrepreneurial risk reaches 80% and it achieves the highest values in the wholesale and retail trade. The average level of critical entrepreneurial risks is about 20%. The highest level of critical risk is observed in manufacturing industries and enterprises specialized in the production of electricity, gas and water. Density function of normal distribution describing the patterns of catastrophic entrepreneurial risk differentiation has been developed based on the aggregate of enterprises operating in the regions of the country. According to the author’s calculations the average level of catastrophic entrepreneurial risk for the regions of the country is about 6%. Regions with high and low levels of catastrophic risks have been revealed. The results of the research can be used to monitor small and medium-sized enterprise activity, as well as to substantiate strategy and development plans of the entrepreneurial sector of the national economy. The values and methods of the existing entrepreneurial risk assessment may attract the interest of business communities when choosing the field of economic activity and monitoring the evaluation of expected risks.

Keywords

entrepreneurial risk, small enterprises, medium-sized enterprises, types of economic activities, regions of the country, admissible risk, critical risk, catastrophic risk, profit, loss, density function of normal distribution

For citation

Pinkovetskaia I.S. Admissible, critical and catastrophic risk in the activity of small and medium-sized enterprises: Methodology of estimation and results of application. Perm University Herald. Economy, 2017, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 148–160. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2017-1-148-160

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