Modeling of nonlinear dynamics of employment rate in a region (in the case study of the regions of the south of the Russian Far East)

Abstract

Modern fundamental and applied challenges of economics increasingly acquire an interdisciplinary nature that contains concepts and methods of sociology, demography, psychology, the theory of nonlinear dynamics and even physics. One of such problems is the shortage of labor resources in the regions of the Russian Far East. For estimation and prediction the discrepancy between the demands of the economy and demographic trends, the indicator of the level of employment is suggested to be applied. This index is defined as the ratio of the number of employed population of a certain age group (cohort) to the population of this age group. The analysis and forecasting of the employment rate can be reduced to the construction of an economic-mathematical model of the dynamics of the number of the employed and the corresponding demographic model. An econophysical model of competition between specialists of different ages and a continuous analogue of the demographic model of Lefkovich are used as these models. Thus, for the first time, a comparative analysis of the employment rate has been made for particular regions of the Far East from the view point of nonlinear dynamics. The modeling of the changes in the amount of the employed population and of the demographic dynamics in the regions of the Far East has made it possible to draw several important conclusions. The employment of the age group of the population of 30-49 years old of Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krai that are considered to be the actively developing regions of the Far East is close to saturation. Consequently, the increase in the number of the employed population of this age group can be determined only by migration growth. At the same time, a significant increase in the number of the cohorts of 30-49 years old has been registered relative to the increase in the number of the employed in this age group. It is related to a possible increase in migration inflows, as the region was suggested to become a region with special social support for the population and with a developing economy. Such effect may be observed in the Khabarovsk and Primorye Territories with the active and successful implementation of large investment projects. The effect may lead to high unemployment rate among migrants. In general, due to the lack of labor resources, young people under the age of 30 are actively involved in the labor activity. Further perspectives of the study may be related to the use of more detailed agent-oriented models, which will allow describing the behavior strategies of individual people and integrating them into homogeneous groups. Such modeling will allow to study in more details the motivation of the population and their influence on the general dynamics of employment.

Keywords

employment level, population size, number of employees, economic-mathematical modeling, forecasting, nonlinear dynamics, Russian Far East, region

For citation

Khavinson M.Yu. Modeling of nonlinear dynamics of employment rate in a region (in the case study of the regions of the south of the Russian Far East). Perm University Herald. Economy. 2017, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 575–591. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2017-4-575-591

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