Empirical models of regional economic growth with spatial effects: Comparative analysis results

Abstract

Spatial models of regional economic growth allow us to assess the contribution of growth factors, as well as spatial interaction effects among regions. Direct and indirect (or spillover) effect estimates can be obtained by methods of spatial econometrics. There are different types of spatial dependence in the models of spatial econometrics: spatial lags for dependent and independent variables, as well as residues. The relevance of the study of empirical regional economic growth models with spatial effects is associated with the need to expand economic growth models to include spatial effects, as well as a low degree of approbation of spatial econometrics methods to models of economic growth in Russian scientific works. The article describes the basic models of spatial econometrics and their analysis based on the comparison of errors associated with the wrong choice of the specification. The results of a review of empirical models of an open regional economy have been presented and the main directions of the study of the spatial effects of economic growth research using means of econometrics, including beta-convergence models, Kaldor and Verdoorn's empirical relations and production function models have been systematized. Further, the possible econometric specifications of regional economic growth models for each direction taking into account spatial effects and additional explanatory factors have been described. This paper reviews the empirical foreign and Russian literature on economic growth models with spatial effects. Тhe issue of the correct model specification in applied empirical studies has been considered in the article. Because the spatial dependence in empirical growth models should be of the substantive type, it is proposed to give preference for spatial lag model specifications (spatial lag model and spatial Durbin model). We assume the further direction of Russian researches in the field of an open regional economy modeling by means of spatial econometrics that will allow us to estimate the economic effects of the flow of the main factors between the regions of Russia.

Keywords

models of economic growth, regional economy, spatial econometrics, beta-convergence, production function, spatial model, spatial dependence, Kaldor’s growth laws

For citation

Gafarova E.A. Empirical models of regional economic growth with spatial effects: Comparative analysis results. Perm University Herald. Economy. 2017, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 561–574. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2017-4-561-574

Acknowledgements

The article has been prepared in the framework of the state assignment by the Institute of Social and Economic Researches of Ufa Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy Sciences in the terms of the research on the theme “Technologies and tools of modelling of the impact of human capital transformation on spatial and economic development of territorial schemes” (No. АААА-А17-117021310210-1).

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