The view point of global economic development trends

Abstract

Theoretical and methodological grounds for the study of modern social development have been considered in the article from the view point of a cyclic approach. This development is a consistent change in the stages of transition from the industrial to the postindustrial era. The definitive analysis of the interpretations that reflect the essential features of modern economic development ("industrial", "neo-industrial", "informational", "postindustrial", "innovative", "virtual", "digital", "neo-economy") has permitted to identify the dominant transformation process, target settings and parameters of a quantitative assessment. During the research we have arrived at the conclusion that the above mentioned types of economy may be considered as stages of modern macroeconomic development transformation. They are generally characterized by basic processes of the transition stage. Total informatization and innovation, structural transformation of production and economy in general, qualitative growth of human capital, production services, hi-tech and technotronic improvement of production technologies, the massive renewal and transformation of productive forces based on breakthrough technologies, search and introduction of new forms of investment support of economic development are considered to be fundamental processes of a modern macroeconomic cycle. We particularly pay attention to objective cyclic nature of the processes that is characterised by direct and negative inter-phase and inter-cyclic recurrent correlations that determine the essence and structural rate of the modern macroeconomic cycle. We have determined that the latter is a special type of a cycle that is characterised by a transformation character. In the frameworks of this cycle the information one being an independent type of the cycle is considered to be a cycle of opportunistic nature. Technological, innovation and investment cycles that accumulate on the information one are characterised by providing character, whereas a production cycle – by defining, social and structural cycles – by a resultant one. Such interpretation of the modern macro-cycle can significantly expand and deepen the research of inter-stage and intra-stage transformational processes. That may lead to the development of the analysis methodology and to the construction of management macroeconomic models.

Keywords

forms of development, transition stage, types of cycles, definitional analysis, transformation, macroeconomic cycle, recurrent approach

For citation

Butorina O.V., Osipova M.Yu., Kutergina G.V. Formation of modern macroeconomic cycle from the view point of global economic development trends. Perm University Herald. Economy. 2017, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 512–526. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2017-4-512-526

Acknowledgements

The research was financially supported by the RHSF grant “Analysis technique and a management model of industrial and investment cycles in the frameworks of modern macroeconomic cycle in the region economy”, № 17-12-59005.

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