System of indicators for forecasting social and ecnomic development of the Arctic macroregion

Abstract

At the present time, the importance of working out of forecasts and models for the development of both territories of various levels, and intersectoral complexes, industries and partucular types of resources has increased. Forecasting socio-economic processes is carried out at the level of the Russian Federation, federal districts, regions, municipalities, which allows you to variably foresee the future development of the territories and quickly solve emerging problems. Recently, the increased attention of the authorities is focused on the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as an important segment of the realization of national interests. Despite the adoption of strategic and policy documents that determine the policy of the federal center on the territory of the Russian Arctic, there are still no scientifically substantiated, reliable and reliable forecasts of the socio-economic development of this macroregion. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the system of indicators for forecasting the social and economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The scientific novelty of the research is the development of an integrated approach to the formation of a system of indicators for forecasting the social and economic development of the Arctic macroregion of Russia. This approach is based on the synthesis of systemic and regional-target methods. Regional features of the socio-economic status of the territories of the Russian Arctic have been identified by the dynamic analysis of official statistical information. These features must necessarily be taken into account to develop a system of forecasting indicators. The main tasks of the social and economic development of the Arctic macroregion are identified based on the analysis of documents of strategic planning at the federal level of both the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and Russia as a whole. The most completely and adequately reflect implementation indicators were substantiated that for the each task. The resulting set of indicators was subjected to a multistage selection based on a comprehensive analysis of the sources of statistical information and regulatory legal documents, as well as the correlation-regression analysis were carried out. As a result, the system of indicators for predicting the socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic based on the principles of adequacy, systemic, complementary, accessible, retrospective and costly was proposed. The results of the study can become the main one for the development of reliable and qualitative forecasts of social and economic development, as well as scientifically based recommendations for improving the efficiency of public administration in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

Keywords

forecasting, indices, indicators of social and economic development, public policy, Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, Arctic macroregion, systematic approach, region target-oriented approach, strategic planning, few indigenous people of the North

For citation

Ukhanova A.V., Smirennikova E.V., Voronina L.V. System of indicators for forecasting social and ecnomic development of the Arctic macroregion. Perm University Herald. Economy, 2018, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 416–432. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2018-3-416-432

Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences project No. 18-9-17-37 «Modeling of ecological and economic scenarios for the spatial development of Arctic regions of Russia».

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