Modification of IS-LM-BP model within the concept of neoclassic synthesis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17072/1994-9960-2019-4-537-550Abstract
With the intensification of processes caused by globalization, the relevance of the studies about the impact of exogenous shocks in the global markets for wealth and money on the macroeconomic parameters of a small open economy is growing. Moreover, the basis of modern economic relations within the global economy is not only the global trade in goods and services, but the international movement of production factors. Migration of labor resources starts playing an increasingly important role in the sphere of the international movement of production factors. The study of these processes and their further analysis is possible within the framework of the IS-LM-BP model supplemented by the labor market data. The IS-LM-BP model is still a significant theoretical and methodological development, which allows us to analyze the impact of exogenous shocks on the global and domestic markets of goods and money markets on a small open economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of state regulation. The opportunity to assess the impact of the exchange rate regime and the mobility of international capital on the effectiveness of state regulation in a small open economy, as well as on the mechanism for adjusting disturbed double equilibrium under the influence of exogenous shocks is considered to be the most interesting. However, the most important macroeconomic market – the labor market – remains outside the framework of this model. The purpose of the study is to modify the IS-LM-BP model developed in the framework of the concept of J.M. Keynes including a new curve – the full-employment curve in the model. The derivation of the curve is based on the theoretical premises of the neoclassical concept: full employment directly depends on the real interest rate in this model acts as an endogenous parameter. This study is based on Keynesian principles of double equilibrium in a small open economy supplemented by neoclassical ideas about full employment as an endogenous parameter. The modification of the IS-LM-BP model based on the principles of neoclassical synthesis means the development of a full-employment curve and including it in the case study model based on the basic principles of the theoretical justification of this macroeconomic model. The full-employment curve identifies the equilibrium curve in the neoclassical labor market. The reason for its inclusion in the IS-LM-BP model is the existing theoretically substantiated relationship between the real interest rate and the supply on the labor market as part of the concept of a new classical school. The dependence is based on the inter-temporal price of labor, which, in turn, is directly dependent on the real interest rate. Since the derivation of the full-employment curve is based on the neoclassical postulates of the functioning of the labor market, the suggested modification of the IS-LM-BP model can be considered as an example of neoclassical synthesis. The IS-LM-BP model modified by the author is proposed as a methodological base for the study of such theoretical and practical aspects of the functioning of open business systems as: 1) the analysis of the adjustment mechanism in the process of restoring disequilibrium in the labor market, goods, money and foreign exchange as a result of exposure to exogenous shocks; 2) the analysis of the effectiveness of state regulation in the functioning of the labor market, goods, money and foreign currency; 3) the comparison of the desired theoretical model with the real processes inherent in small open economies.
KeywordsIS-LM model, Mandell-Fleming model, IS-LM-BP model, real business cycle model, full-time curve, Keynesian concept, neoclassical synthesis, IS-LM-BP-NF model, exchange rate regime, capital mobility, small open economy
For citationKamyshova A.B. Modification of IS-LM-BP model within the concept of neoclassic synthesis. Perm University Herald. Economy, 2019, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 537–550. DOI 10.17072/1994-9960-2019-4-537-550
References1. De Frei M. Istoriya makroekonomiki: ot Keinsa k Lukasu i do sovremennosti. Per. s angl. A.V. Belykh [History of macroeconomics: From Keynes to Lucas and to the present. Transl. from Engl. A.V. Belykh]. Moscow, Delo Publ., RANKhiGS, 2019. 576 p. (In Russian).
2. Keins Dzh.M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg. Per. s angl. [The general theory of employment, interest and money. Transl. from Engl.]. Moscow, 1993. 307 p. (In Russian).
3. Hicks J.R. Mr. Keynes and the Classics. Econometrica, 1937, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 147–159.
4. Khiks Dzh.R. Gospodin Keins i “klassiki”: popytka interpretatsii. [Mr. Keynes and the classics: An attempt of interpretation]. Istoki, 1998, iss. 3, pp. 293–307. (In Russian).
5. Khansen E. Ekonomicheskie tsikly i natsional'nyi dokhod [Economic cycles and national income]. Moscow, Finansovaya akademiya Publ., 2008. 466 p. (In Russian).
6. Kharrod R., Khansen E. Klassiki keinsianstva (v 2 t.) [Classics of Keynesianism. In 2 vol.]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 1997. (Ekonomicheskoe nasledie) [Economic heritage]. T. 1: K teorii ekonomicheskoi dinamiki: Ekonomicheskie tsikly i natsional'nyi dokhod. Ch. 1-2 [Vol. 1: Towards the theory of economic dynamics: Economic cycles and national income. Part 1-2], 1997. 414 p. (In Russian).
7. Blaug M. Ekonomicheskaya mysl' v retrospective. Per. s angl. 4-e izd [Economic thought in retrospect. Transl. from Engl. 4th (ed.)]. Moscow, Delo LTD Publ., 1994. 627 p. (In Russian).
8. Blaug M. 100 velikikh ekonomistov posle Keinsa. Per. s angl. [100 great economists after Keynes. Transl. from Engl.]. St. Petersburg, Ekonomikus Publ., 2009. 384 p. (In Russian).
9. Vaintraub S. “Khiksianskoe” keinsianstvo: velichie i upadok. Sovremennaya ekonomicheskaya mysl'. Per. s angl. ["Hikstian" Keynesianism: Greatness and decline. Modern economic thought. Transl. from Engl.]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1981. 816 p. (In Russian).
10. Mundell R.A. Capital mobility and stabilization under fixed and flexible exchange rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1963, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 487–499.
11. Findlay R. International economics: R.A. Mundell (Macmillan, New York, 1968). Journal of International Economics, 1974, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 318–319.
12. Fleming J. Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. IMF Staff Papers, 1962, vol. 9, iss. 3, pp. 369–379.
13. Kamyshova A.B. Teoreticheskie osnovy gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya ob"ema i struktury proizvodstva v usloviyakh globalizatsii: monografiya [Theoretical bases of state regulation of volume and structure of production in the conditions of globalization: monograph]. St. Petersburg, SPbGUEF Publ., 2011. 267 p. (In Russian).
14. Kamyshova A.B. Interpretatsiya napravleniya i soderzhaniya gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya sovokupnogo sprosa v ekonomike Rossii posredstvom modeli Mandella-Fleminga [Interpretation of the direction and content of state regulation of aggregate demand in the Russian economy through the Mandell-Fleming model]. Transformatsiya nepreryvnogo obrazovaniya: teoriya i praktika razvitiya magisterskogo obrazovaniya v usloviyakh ekonomiki znanii: monografiya. K desyatiletiyu Instituta magistratury. Chast' 2. Pod red. I.A. Maksimtseva, A.N. Petrova, L.V. Khorevoi [Transformation of continuing education: Theory and practice of development of master's education in the knowledge economy: monograph. To the 10th anniversary of the Institute of Magistracy. Part 2. Maksimtsev I.A., Petrov A.N., Khoreva L.V. (eds.)]. St. Petersburg, SPbGEU Publ., 2017. 227 p. (In Russian).
15. Feldstein M., Horioka C. Domestic savings and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 1980, vol. 90, pp. 314–329.
16. Krol R. International capital mobility: Evidence from panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 1996, vol. 15, iss. 3, pp. 467–474.
17. Coiteux M., Olivier S. The saving retention coefficient in the long run and in the short run: Evidence from panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2000, vol. 19, iss. 4, pp. 535–548.
18. Giannone D., Lenza M. The Feldstein-Horioka fact. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2004, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 103–117.
19. Fouquau J., Hurlin C., Rabaud I. The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach. Economic Modelling, 2008, vol. 25, pp. 284–299.
20. Helliwell J. Demographic change and international factor mobility. Global demographic change: Economic impacts and policy changes. A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. August 26–28, 2004, pp. 369–420.
21. Feldstein M. Monetary policy in a changing international environment: The Role of capital flows. NBER Working Paper, 2005, no. 11856. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w11856 (accessed 21.09.2019).
22. Kasuga H. Saving-investment correlations in developing countries. Economics Letters, 2004, vol. 83, no. 3, pp. 371–376.
23. Zubarev A., Trunin P. Paradoks Fil'shteina-Khorioki: sovremennye aspekty [Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: Modern approach]. Ekonomicheskaya politika [Economic Policy], 2013, no. 4, pp. 54–73. (In Russian).
24. Bazu S., Khlaus K.L. Raspredelitel'nye i nachislennye zarabotnye platy: novye fakty i vyzovy dlya keinsianskikh modelei [Distributive and accrued wages: New facts and challenges for Keynesian models]. Spravochnoe rukovodstvo po makroekonomike. V 5 kn. Kn. 1. Fakty ob ekonomicheskom roste i ekonomicheskikh kolebaniyakh. Teilor Dzh. B., Uilig Kh.; Per. s angl. Pod nauch. red. K. Sosunova [Handbook of macroeconomics. In 5 books. Book 1. Facts about economic growth and economic fluctuations. Taylor J.B., Uilig H. Transl. from Engl. Sosunova K. (scien. ed.)]. Moscow, Izdatel'skii dom “Delo”, RANKhiGS Publ., 2019. 528 p. (In Russian).
25. Kamyshova A.B. Diskussionnye problemy metodologii gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya v usloviyakh global'noi nestabil'nosti ekonomicheskikh sistem [Debatable issues of government control techniques in economic systems global instability environment]. Zhurnal pravovykh i ekonomicheskikh issledovanii [Journal of Legal and Economic Studies], 2014, no. 4, pp. 92–99. (In Russian).